Werth Poll

May 2016 Werth Poll, Part 1 of 4: Ohio Outlook Much Brighter Than National Mood

May 27, 2016

Ohio is supposed to be the national bellwether. But there is quite a discrepancy between how Ohioans feel about their state and how Americans feel about their country.

The May Werth Poll found that by a 2-1 margin, Ohio voters are optimistic about Ohio’s trajectory. More than 53 percent said the state is headed in the right direction, compared to less than 26 percent who believe Ohio is on the wrong track.

Werth Poll Graphics JPEG
Compare this sunny statewide outlook to the pessimism we see nationwide. A variety of national polling firms have produced surveys in the past month about the country’s direction, and all of them tell the same grim story.

  • CBS/New York Times – Wrong track: 63 percent; Right direction: 30 percent
  • The Economist/YouGov – Wrong track: 68; Right direction: 23
  • Rasmussen Reports – Wrong track: 66 percent; Right direction 27 percent
  • Reuters/Ipsos – Wrong track: 62 percent; Right direction: 24 percent

So while America wrings its hands, Ohio, according to the Werth Poll, feels great about Ohio.

Some demographic groups surveyed in the Werth Poll were more positive about Ohio’s course than others: men more than women, whites more than blacks, Republicans more than Democrats, and millennials more than boomers.

But there was not a single subset in which a plurality chose “wrong track” over “right direction.”

Is Ohio’s quality of life dramatically better than the rest of the country? Are our voters more optimistic? Or is everybody just really excited about LeBron and the Cavs?

Whatever it is, the real test of our positive outlook will come this fall after enduring months of targeted advertising and robocalls from the presidential campaigns.

Below are the details of the survey and responses to this question. Stay tuned next week as we reveal part 2 of the spring Werth Poll.

Ohio Statewide Survey
5/10/16 – 5/14/2016
N=803, +/- 3.45%
Registered Voters
(Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.) 

tabs

 

This survey research data was gathered through telephone interviews that specially-trained interviewers conducted with 803 randomly-selected registered voters in the State of Ohio with histories of voting in recent even-year November general elections or were recent new registrants, who had valid residential, VOIP or cellular telephone numbers. The interviews were performed during the period of May 10, 2016 through May 14, 2016. The overall estimated margin of sampling error is +/- 3.45%, based on a confidence level of 95%, although it varies for each individual question. This means that if this survey was repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would be within plus or minus 3.45% of those provided herein. Adjustments were made to weight the results toward demographic and geographic characteristics of the state’s electorate, in order to account for under- and over-sampling that normally occurs as a result of the random selection process, and to ensure that all major sub-groups are represented in proportion to their actual percentages. Like all polls, this opinion survey research is subject to other possible sources of error, such as unintentional bias in the wording of questions, data-entry error and nonresponse bias.

 

For past results, visit our Werth Poll page at http://www.paulwerth.com/category/werth-poll/